So where did we go so awfully wrong this year?
"In the past few years, we've used the supply/demand dynamic on a forward basis and traded the bias. For example, if the projected supply/demand is in a deficit, we would be biased to the bull side, and vice versa.
"This year, it was evident to us that as Lower 48 production increased and power burn decreased, the market would awaken to the fact that the supply/demand has tiptoed back into surplus, and thus prices would fall.
"But that's not how the market is viewing this."
This from our friends at HFI Research July 26, 2021. Misery loves company. In my case, I knew I was overstaying my welcome. But too many contributing factors should be a warning that risk management ain't managed well enough.